Market Report · El Dorado Hills · June 8, 2026
Is This a Seasonal Slowdown or Something More?
Inventory up. Pending ratio down. Days on market up 9 days. Seven years of El Dorado Hills data show the direction is normal — but the degree is not. Here is exactly what the numbers say.
By Jon Yoffie · Yoffie Real Estate Group · DRE# 02030510 · Data as of June 7, 2026
The first thing most people ask when they see a softening data set in June is whether school endings, graduations, and summer travel are the explanation. It is a fair question — and the seven-year history of this market gives a direct answer.
The short version: about half of what changed from May to June is consistent with normal seasonal patterns. The other half is running above the historical baseline and warrants watching. Knowing which half is which changes what you should do about it.
What Seasonal Looks Like in El Dorado Hills
Looking at every May-to-June transition from 2019 through 2025, the data establishes a clear baseline for what end-of-school-year seasonality normally produces in this market.
| Year | Inventory Δ | Pending Δ | Mo. Supply Δ | DOM Δ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +33 | −28 | +0.2 | 0 | Seasonal |
| 2020 | −5 | +39 | −0.9 | +5 | Counter-seasonal |
| 2021 | +20 | +12 | +0.1 | 0 | Mixed |
| 2022 | +46 | −33 | +1.1 | +7 | Rate shock |
| 2023 | +15 | −8 | −0.4 | −6 | Mild seasonal |
| 2024 | +14 | −1 | 0.0 | −4 | Mild seasonal |
| 2025 | −8 | −10 | −0.3 | +20 | DOM outlier |
| 7-yr avg | +16.4 | −4.1 | 0.0 | +3.1 | |
| 2026 | +17 | +1 | +0.8 | +9 | Mixed — watch July |
Inventory rises from May to June in five of seven historical years, with an average increase of 16 listings. The pending ratio drops in five of seven. These are not anomalies — they are the expected pattern of a market where families list after the school year ends and some buyers pause for summer plans.
Where 2026 Is Within the Normal Range
Seasonal — consistent with history
The inventory increase of +17 is almost exactly the 7-year average of +16.4. The pending ratio dropping 4 points mirrors the historical tendency. These two metrics alone, seen in isolation, would not warrant a second look. They are what this market does every June.
Where 2026 Is Running Above the Baseline
Above seasonal — days on market
Days on market for sold homes rose 9 days from May to June. The 7-year average for this same transition is +3.1 days. In 2019 and 2021, DOM didn’t move at all May-to-June. The 2026 jump is nearly three times the historical average and puts this metric in the company of 2022 — the rate-shock year. A 9-day DOM increase in a seasonal transition is not normal for El Dorado Hills.
Above seasonal — months of supply
Months of supply increased by 0.9 months from May to June. The 7-year average for this transition is essentially flat at 0.0. The only comparable jump was 2022’s +1.1 — the rate-shock year. Every other year, supply held steady or declined from May to June. The 2026 increase of 0.9 months is not a seasonal number.
“The direction of this shift is seasonal. The degree of it — particularly on days on market and months of supply — is not. Both things are true at the same time, and conflating them produces bad decisions in either direction.”
What to Watch in July
The honest answer to whether this is a trend or a blip is that July will settle it. Seasonal softness typically corrects in July and August as the summer buyer pool engages. If July shows inventory continuing to build past 220–225 active listings and pending ratios staying below 35%, the above-seasonal reading on supply and DOM is confirmed as structural. If July pulls back toward May’s 3.1 months and DOM drops back below 40, the seasonal explanation holds most of the weight.
The distinction matters because the strategic response is different. A purely seasonal dip is not a reason to cut price — it is a reason to hold and let the summer market absorb. A structural supply build is a reason to price into the current demand band before the gap between active and sold prices widens further.
What It Means by Segment Right Now
The seasonal-vs-structural question does not apply uniformly. Two bands moved counter to the overall softening:
$1.25M–$1.5M — improved from May
Pending ratio rose from 38% to 50%. Half of active listings in this range are under contract. Homes closing at 99.7% of list. This band is genuinely strong and moved counter to the seasonal softening narrative. Sellers here are in a competitive position.
$3M–$3.5M — structural, not seasonal
Months of supply rose from 11.4 to 20.0. One pending contract on 10 active listings. Homes selling at 89.4% of list. This band’s deterioration is not seasonal — it has been building for months and the June data deepened it.
Full Band Breakdown — June 7, 2026
| Price Range | Active | Pending | Pend. % | Sold 6mo | DoM Sold | % List | Mo. Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0–$750K | 38 | 21 | 55% | 88 | 48 | 98.3% | 2.6 |
| $750K–$1M | 65 | 24 | 37% | 106 | 34 | 99.0% | 3.7 |
| $1M–$1.25M | 31 | 8 | 26% | 48 | 46 | 97.1% | 3.9 |
| $1.25M–$1.5M | 22 | 11 | 50% | 37 | 43 | 99.7% | 3.5 |
| $1.5M–$1.75M | 11 | 4 | 36% | 18 | 75 | 99.0% | 3.7 |
| $1.75M–$2M | 7 | 3 | 43% | 6 | 37 | 97.6% | 7.0 |
| Under $2M Totals | 174 | 71 | 41% | 303 | 44 | 98.6% | 3.4 |
| $2M–$2.5M | 7 | 3 | 43% | 7 | 22 | 97.2% | 5.8 |
| $2.5M–$3M | 7 | 1 | 14% | 7 | 24 | 96.2% | 5.8 |
| $3M–$3.5M | 10 | 1 | 10% | 3 | 54 | 89.4% | 20.0 |
| $3.5M–$4M | 8 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 64 | 96.7% | 26.7 |
| $2M–$5M Totals | 37 | 5 | 14% | 21 | 30 | 95.7% | 10.6 |
| Market Totals | 214 | 76 | 36% | 324 | 43 | 98.4% | 4.0 |
Questions About the June 2026 El Dorado Hills Market
Is the El Dorado Hills market slowing because of summer and school ending?
Partially. The direction of the shift — more inventory, fewer pendings — is consistent with normal seasonal patterns in 5 of the last 7 years. But the degree is above historical baseline on two key metrics: days on market rose 9 days versus a 7-year average of +3.1, and months of supply increased 0.9 months versus a 7-year average of essentially flat. About half is calendar. The other half warrants watching through July.
Does El Dorado Hills always slow down at the end of the school year?
Yes, with consistency. Inventory rose from May to June in 5 of the last 7 years. Pending contract volume dropped in 5 of 7. The end-of-school-year period reliably adds supply as families who waited to list now do, and reduces urgency as some buyers shift to summer plans. This is a documented, recurring pattern — not a sign of market deterioration when seen in isolation.
What is the current average home price in El Dorado Hills?
The average sold price as of June 7, 2026 is $1,072,450, down from $1,107,103 in May. Homes are closing at 98.4% of list price across the total market. The sub-$2M segment is holding at 98.6% of list with 3.4 months of supply.
Which El Dorado Hills price bands are strongest right now?
The $1.25M–$1.5M band leads with a 50% pending ratio and 99.7% list-to-sale ratio — the only band that actually improved from May. The $750K–$1M range remains active at 99% of list in 34 days. The $2M–$2.5M band is the most competitive above $2M at a 43% pending ratio.
Should I wait until fall to list my El Dorado Hills home?
The historical data does not support waiting. The sub-$2M market currently shows 3.4 months of supply and 98.6% list-to-sale ratio. If July data shows inventory continuing to build beyond seasonal norms, the conditions for sellers only get incrementally harder — not easier. The Smart Seller Pricing System™ accounts for current seasonal conditions in its analysis.
How will we know in July if this was seasonal or structural?
If July shows inventory pulling back from 214 toward May’s 197, and the pending ratio recovers toward 40%, the seasonal explanation holds most of the weight. If inventory continues climbing past 220–225 active listings and DOM stays above 40 days, the supply build is structural and pricing strategy needs to reflect it. The July report will answer this directly.
What Does the June Data Mean for Your Home?
June shifted. Days on market are up, supply is building, and some price bands are moving counter to the trend. The Smart Seller Pricing System™ runs your specific address against the current data to show where you stand — and what to do about it.
Call us: 916.941.6566theyoffies@yoffierealestate.com · yoffierealestategroup.com · DRE# 02030510
